A forecast is only as good as the stage definitions behind it.
If "Propose" means one thing to one rep and something else to another, the stage probabilities are guesses and the forecast is a sum of guesses. This is the pipeline hygiene work we do first: write the stages down with exit criteria, check every open deal against them, and show the sales leader what the forecast looks like when only deals that meet their stage's rules count in full.
What each stage means, and what has to be true to leave it
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Written for the people who own the pipeline: the sales leader and the AEs. Each stage has a plain-language meaning, an entry test, and the fields that must be filled before the deal can move on. A deal in a stage must carry every field required by the stages before it.
Which open deals fail their stage's rules
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By rule
A deal can fail more than one rule, so rule counts add up to more than the number of failing deals. Each field is checked by exactly one rule, so a single empty field is never counted twice. Select a rule to filter the deal list.
By owner
Passing means the deal meets every rule for its current stage. Select an owner to filter the deal list.
Select a deal, or focus it and press Enter, to see the evidence for each failed rule and what the rep needs to fill in.
The same pipeline, before and after the rules
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Review list: deals excluded from the forecast
Excluded deals are not dropped. Each one goes to this list with the reason, and comes back into the forecast the day its owner fixes the record.
Start by flagging. Enforce once the definitions have held for two weeks.
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How we roll this out
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Open decisions for the sales leader
- Down-weight for warning-only deals. Proposed 50% of stage probability. Could be 75% for Negotiate, where a missed next step is less telling.
- Past close dates. Proposed: exclude until the rep sets a real date. Alternative: roll to the last day of the quarter and flag. Excluding is stricter and keeps the rep accountable for the date.
- Stage probabilities. Proposed: historical stage-to-won rates from the last four quarters, reviewed each quarter. Alternative: keep the HubSpot defaults until there is more closed history.
- Next-step age limit. Proposed 14 days for every segment. Enterprise deals with long procurement may need 21.